Roger’s Birds-Eye View

Roger Bird, Head of Trading, Risk, and Markets, examines the UK and Europe’s growing reliance on U.S. LNG and asks whether the shift away from Russian gas is creating a new strategic dependency. With geopolitical risk rising and markets facing 2026, he explores what this evolving landscape could mean for energy security, pricing, and volatility.

A topic I find very interesting as well as relevant, is the subject around LNG gas requirements for the UK and Europe, and how the U.S can influence European pricing.

At present the outlook and landscape is healthy. The UK is on course to finish winter with gas storage levels at a reasonable position to previous years, as well as ample LNG arrivals from the U.S, Qatar, and Algeria.

Clearly this is a great position to be in considering the previous reliance on Russian gas for Europe, that culminated in the EU needing to break the relationship after Russia invaded Ukraine, contributing to an astonishing price spike in 2022.

However, what if the EU and UK are falling into another potential relationship with the U.S who hold all the power just like Russia did?

Flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States into Europe have surged year on year since 2021. Let’s look at the figures:

• Market Dominance: In the third quarter of 2025, the US accounted for 59.9% of all EU LNG imports. When considering the total gas mix (including pipeline), the US provided approximately 27% of the EU’s total gas imports by mid-2025, a massive increase from just 4% in 2019.
• Replacing Russia: Russia’s share of EU total natural gas imports fell to 11% by the second quarter of 2025, down from 51% in 2019. This gap has been filled almost entirely by US LNG and increased pipeline flows from Norway.
• Extreme Regional Reliance: Specific EU nations have become nearly entirely dependent on US supply. By late 2025, the US provided over 80% of LNG imports for Germany (94%), Greece (84%), and Finland (81%).
• Infrastructure Lock-in: The EU spent approximately €117.4 billion on US LNG between early 2022 and June 2025, cementing a lucrative transatlantic trade corridor.

Europe will likely sit at or near these record levels of LNG imports throughout this year with Asian spot demand remaining subdued as it stands. Fill up well ahead of 2026 winter and all is fine one would assume.

The US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and White House threats to acquire Greenland by force have, in a short space of time, potentially put the EU and UK at risk of further supply issues.

The real problem starts where geopolitics start to become a more influential force over fundamentals alone. 2026 could see geopolitics become the main threat rather than just a risk amongst others.

We could see Europe and the UK become majorly dependent on the U.S for LNG imports just as it had with Russia previously.

However, if the U.S tries to take Greenland which would majorly undermine Europe and threaten NATOs existence, will we be forced to find alternative LNG sources rather than the U.S? Creating volatility, tighter demand, and increase in gas and power prices.

Of course, these are just ‘what ifs’ and seemingly out of reach views as it stands, however, certainly topical, interesting, and one to keep an eye on that further cements the UK and Europe’s need to widen relationships and invest heavily in domestic generation for future energy security.

Roger Bird

Head of Trading, Risks, and Markets

Meet Roger Bird, Head of Trading, Risks, and Markets at Inteb Managed Services. With a proven track record in energy procurement and contract management, Roger leads with innovation and a steadfast commitment to sustainability. His expertise spans risk management, energy procurement, and fostering robust client relationships, driving Inteb towards its...

Roger.Bird@inteb.uk